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Detection of Drought Tendency Based on Precipitation in Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) Region, Turkey
(Detection of Drought Tendency Based on Precipitation in Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) Region, Turkey )

Author : Kadri YUREKLI    
Type :
Printing Year : 2016
Number : 2016-2
Page : 174-183


Summary
Bu çalışmada, Güneydoğu Anadolu Proje (GAP) alanında kuraklık eğilimi ,Mann- Kendal (MK) ve Theil-Sen Eğim (TSE) yaklaşımları kullanılarak analiz edildi. Bu amaç için, bölgedeki yağış istasyonlarının aylık yağmurlarına dayalı olarak 3- ve 12 aylık zaman ölçeğinin veri setleri çalışmada göz önüne alındı. Yedi istasyonun 12-aylık zaman ölçeğinin veri seti tüm aylarda azalan trende sahipken, dokuz istasyonun 3- aylık zaman ölçeği için elde edilen veri setleriyle ilgili olarak ayların toplam sayısının % 53’ünde azalan trend bulunmaktadır. Bu, kuraklık eğilimi zaman ölçeğinin daha uzun periyotlarında artış olduğunu gösteriyor. Herhangi bir istasyondaki trendin yön ve büyüklüğü TSE yöntemiyle belirlendi.

Turkish Keywords
GAP, yağış trendi, Mann-Kendal test

Abstract
In this study, drought tendency in Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) area was analyzed by using the Mann-Kendal (MK) and Theil-Sen Slope estimator (TSE) approaches. In this reason, the data sets of the 3- and 12-month timescales, based on monthly rainfalls of rain gauging stations in the area, was considered in the study. There is a decreasing trend in the 53% of total number of months concerning with the data sets of the 3-month timescale for nine sites when the entire months of seven stations have a downward trend for the data sets related to the 12-month timescale. This shows that the tendency of drought increases at the longer periods of timescale. The direction and magnitude of trend in any station was detected with the TSE method.

Keywords
GAP, rainfall trend, Mann-Kendal test

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