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Buğdayda Risk Ve Belirsizlik Analizleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma
( )

Author : Nuray KIZILASLAN  A. Zafer GÜRLER  
Type :
Printing Year : 1991
Number : 1991-2
Page : 91-104


Summary
Yapılan analiz sonuçlarına göre, buğdayın verim belirsizliği düşük bulunmuş¬tur. Ayrıca teknolojik ve ekonomik olaylardan üreticinin haberdar olduğu varsayı¬mı altında bu belirsizlik daha düşük bir sonuç vermektedir. Buradan, üreticinin bi¬linçlendiği, üretim planlarında daha etkin kararlar aldığı, modern girdilerin kullanı¬mının hızlanması ve buna bağlı olarak üretimin doğal koşullara bağlılığının azaldı¬ğı sonuçları çıkarılabilir. Fiyat belirsizliği, orjinal fiyat serisinin reel fiyatlara dönüştürülmesine rağ¬men, yüksek bulunmuştur, 'Orjinal fiyat serisiyle hesaplanacak belirsizliğin ne ka¬dar şiddetli olacağı anlaşılmaktadır. Bu ürünün destekleme alımlan kapsamında olması fiyat belirsizliğini nispeten ortadan kaldırıcı etki yapabileceği söylenebilir. Brüt getiri belirsizliğini oluşturan verim ve fiyat değişmelerinin karşıt yönlü bulunuşu, buğdaydan elde edilen gelirin düşük dalgalanmalara neden olduğunu göstermektedir.

Turkish Keywords


Abstract
According to the results of certain analyses, the yield uncertainty for wheat has been found to be low. In addition to this, these uncertainties would be even low if farmers were kept well informed regarding technologic and economic events. Consciousness of farmers, effective decisions taking power for producti¬on planning, rapid use of modem investments and less dependence of natural conditions can be taken from the results of this study. Price uncertainty has been found to be high even though original price seri¬als have been transferred to reel prices. If uncertainty would have been calcula¬ted with original price serials, it would have been too high. Production purchase support may be the factor for controlling the price uncertainty to some extent. The income obtained from wheat has shown less fluctuation due to contrary rela¬tionship between production and price which from gross income uncertainty.

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