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Maksimum ve Minumum Sıcaklıkların CLIGEN İklim Modeli ile İstatistiksel Değerlendirilmesi
(Statistical Evaluation of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures through CLIGEN Climate Model )

Author : Bilal Habeşi ÖZKAYNAR  Saniye DEMİR, Yunus AKDOĞAN  
Type :
Printing Year : 2020
Number : 2020-3
Page : 190-201


Summary
İklim simülasyon modelleri iklimsel değişiklikler, toprak erozyonu, su tutma kapasitesi, su kalitesi, ürün gelişimi ve benzeri birçok çalışmada kullanılmak üzere tahmini günlük verilerinin oluşturulmasında yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Gelecekteki iklim simülasyonlarının etkisini simüle etmek için, uzun süreli ölçülen veriler yeterli olmadığında, ölçülen veriler hatalı kayıtlar içerdiğinde, gözlenen verilerin toplanması maliyetli ya da çok zaman gerektirdiği için iklim modelleri kullanılmaktadır. İklim modellerinin çoğu rüzgar hızı, bağıl nem, solar radyasyon, sıcaklık ve yağış gibi bir ya da daha fazla iklim değişkenini tahmin etmektedir. CLIGEN, USCLIMATE ve WXGEN gibi iklim modelleri, standart normal dağılım kullanarak mak ve min sıcaklık değerleri oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Kayseri, Sivas ve Yozgat istasyonlarına ait uzun yıllar ortalama sıcaklık verileri CLIGEN iklim modeli ile simülde edilmiştir. Hem gözlenen hem de simüle edilen verilerin normal dağılıma uyumu Kolmogorv-Smirnov testi ile belirlenmiştir. Aylık gözlenen maksimum ve minumum sıcaklıkların normal dağılıma uymadığı, çarpıklık değerinin hemen hemen tüm aylar için negatif olduğu görülmüştür. CLIGEN, yaz ayları için gözlenen değerin üzerinde simüle ettiği ve bazı aylar için bulunan değerlerin normal dağılım gösterdiği görülmüştür.

Turkish Keywords
Sıcaklık, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, CLIGEN

Abstract
Climate simulation models are widely used in generating estimated daily data to be used in climate change, soil erosion, water holding capacity, water quality, product development, and many other studies. Climate models are used to simulate the impact of future climate simulations in cases when long-term measured data is not sufficient, the measured data contain erroneous records since the collection of observed data is costly or requires a lot of time. Most climate models predict one or more climate variables such as wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, temperature, and precipitation. Climate models such as CLIGEN, USCLIMATE and WXGEN create max and min temperature values using the standard normal distribution. In the present study, CLIGEN climate model was used to simulate the long-term average temperature data of Kayseri, Sivas, and Yozgat stations. The compliance of both observed and simulated data with the normal distribution was determined by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. It was observed that the maximum and minimum temperature values did not conform to the normal distribution, and the skew value was negative for almost all months. It was found that CLIGEN simulated above the observed value for the summer months and the values obtained for some months showed the normal distribution.

Keywords
Temperature, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, CLIGEN

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