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Hidrolojik Tasarımda Ekstrem Yağmur Serilerindeki Değişim Noktasının Etkisi
(Impact of Change Point Presence in Extreme Rainfall Series on Hydrological Design )

Author : Kadri YUREKLI    
Type :
Printing Year : 2020
Number : 2020-3
Page : 109-114


Summary
Çalışma, maksimum yağış veri dizilerinin değişiminin analizi ve bu veri setlerindeki değişimin frekans analizleri üzerindeki etkisi üzerine yürütülmüştür. Bu hedefe, değişim noktasının saptanmasında dikkate alınan Pettitt testi ve frekans analizi için Genelleştirilmiş Ekstrem Değer (GEV) dağılımı ile ulaşılmıştır. GEV dağılımına dayanarak, farklı tekrarlanma periyotlarındaki yağmur değerleri her istasyon için değişim noktasından önceki ve sonraki veriler için tahmin edildi. Her tekrarlanma periyodundaki yağmur çiftleri önemli farka sahip oldu. Hidrolik projelerin tasarımında gerekli olan güvenilir verinin temininde, verideki değişimin giderilmesinin zorunlu olduğu vurgulanmıştır. Değişim noktasına sahip bir veriye çift birikimli eğri yöntemi uygulandığında güvenilir bir veriye ulaşılabileceği teyit edildi.

Turkish Keywords
Maksimum yağmur, değişim noktası, Pettitt test, GEV dağılımı

Abstract
The study was conducted on analyzing variation of maximum rainfall data sequences and on impact of change in these datasets on their frequency analysis. This goal was achieved with pettitt test considered in detection of change-point and, with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for frequency analysis. Based on the GEV distribution, quantile values at different return periods were estimated for two data sets before and after change-point for each site. The couple of quantile at each return period had significant different. It was emphasized that it is imperative to eliminate the change in data in obtaining reliable data required in the design of hydraulic projects. When double-mass curve method is applied to a data with a change point, it is confirmed that a reliable data would be able to be reached.

Keywords
Maximum rainfall, change-point, Pettitt test, GEV distribution

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