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Referans Evapotrasprasyonun Tahmin Edilmesinde ARIMA Yaklaşımı
(ARIMA Approach to Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration )

Author : Kadri YUREKLI    
Type :
Printing Year : 2020
Number : 2020-1
Page : 17-22


Summary
Çalışmadaki amaç SARIMA modellerle referans evapotranspırasyonun (ETo) tahmin edilmesi üzerinedir. Bu Konya meteoroloji istasyonunun bazı parametrelerine bağlı olarak elde edilen aylık ETo veri seti kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. ETo veri setinin durağanlığı fark alınarak sağlanmıştır. Durağan seri için bütün koşulları yerine getiren üç SARIMA modeli tanımlanmıştır. Bu modeller AIC ve SBC kriterlerine göre çok yakın tutumluluk (parsimony) değerlerine sahip oldu.

Turkish Keywords
Referans Evapotranspırasyon, ARIMA Yaklaşımı, AIC, SBC

Abstract
The effort in the study is on forecasting reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the SARIMA models. This was accomplished by using monthly ETo dataset obtained based on some parameters of Konya meteorology station. Stationary of the ETo dataset was fulfilled with differencing. Three SARIMA models that provides all conditions for the stationary data set were identified. The models have very close parsimony values depending on AIC and SBC criteria

Keywords
Reference Evapotranspiration, ARIMA approach, AIC, SBC

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