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Türkiye’deki Üzüm Hasat Alanı ve Üretiminin Zaman Serisi Analiz Yöntemleriyle Tahminlenmesi
(Projecting Grape Harvest Area and Production inTurkey Using Time Series Analysis )

Author : Melekşen AKIN  Sadiye PERAL EYDURAN  
Type :
Printing Year : 2017
Number : 2017-3
Page : 65-74


Summary
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki üzüm hasat alanı ve üretimini 2016-2025 dönemi için tahminlemektir. Bu amaçla, 1961-2015 dönemine ait Türkiye üzüm hasat alanı ve üretimi FAOSTAT verileri kullanılmıştır. Üzüm hasat alanı ve üretimini modellemek için üstsel düzleştirme teknikleri kıyaslanmıştır. Holt modeli, 2016-2025 dönemi için üzüm hasat alanının 453 985 hektardan 382 250 hektara düşeceğini ve üzüm üretiminin 3 819 753 tondan 3 944 376 tona yükseleceğini öngörmüştür. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen projeksiyon sonuçlarının, gelecek yıllar için Türkiye üzüm üretimi ve fiyat yapılandırılması ile gıda güvenliği ve sürdürülebilirliği konusunda iyi politikalar geliştirilmesi açısından yararlı bilgi sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Turkish Keywords
üstsel düzleştirme, tahminleme, üzüm, Holt yöntemi, zaman serileri

Abstract
The objective of this study was to forecast grape harvest area and production in Turkey for 2016-2025 period. For this aim, the FAOSTAT data on grape harvest area and production of 1961-2015 period in Turkey was used. Exponential smoothing models were compared to model grape harvest area and production. Holt model results reflected that a decrease in grape harvest area from 453 985 ha to 382 250 ha was forecasted for the 2016-2025 period. According to the Holt model, the grape production forecasted as 3 819 753 tons in 2016 will increase to 3 944 376 tons in 2025. The projection results of this study could provide useful information for developing good policies for food sustainability, grape production and price structuring in Turkey for the next years.

Keywords
exponential smoothing, forecasting, grape, Holt method, time series

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