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Tersakan Çayı Havzasında Taşkına Neden Olan Günlük En Büyük Akımların Tekrarlanma Sürelerinin Saptanması
(Determination of The Recurrence intervals of The Daily Maximum Flows Caused Flood on The Tersakan Stream Watershed )

Author : Kadri YÜREKLİ  Ahmet KURUNÇ  
Type :
Printing Year : 2001
Number : 2001-1
Page : 119-123


Summary
Bu çalışına Tersakan çayı havzasında taşkına neden olan günlük en büyük akımların tekrarlanma sürelerini saptanmak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla Tersakan çayı üzerinde Devlet Su İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü (DSİ) tarafından açılan ve 1991 yılında rasatlara son verilen 47 numaralı akım gözlem istasyonunda 1967-1987 yılları arasında ölçülen günlük akını miktarları kullanılmıştır. Giinlük akım miktarları arasından her yıl için günlük en büyük akım miktarları seçilmiştir. Tersakan çayı üzerinde yapılan Yedikır barajı 1987 yılından sonra su tutmaya başladığı için bu süreden sonraki akım miktarları homojenliği bozacağından dikkate alınmamıştır. Tersakan çayının günlük en büyük akimlarının homojen olduğu homojenlik testi ile saptanmıştır. Araştırmada, tekrarlanma sürelerinin saptanmasında noktasal durum ilişkileri (Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey, Gringorîen) ile olasılık dağılım biçimleri (normal, log normal, üç parametreli log normal, iki parametreli gama, Pearson III, log Pearson IH, uç-I) göz önüne alınmıştır. Gözlem süresinden daha küçük sürelerde beklenen günlük en büyiik akım miktarlarının elde edilmesinde Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey ve Gringorten noktasal durum ilişkileri kullanılabir. Ayrıca, 10 yıldan daha küçük tekrarlanma süreli akımların elde edilmesinde gözönüne alman olasılık dağıiım biçimlerinden biri kullanılabilir. Günlük en büyük akımların tekrarlanma sürelerinin saptanmasında üç parametreli log normal dağılım biçiminin kullanılması önerilebilir.

Turkish Keywords
Günlük en büyük akım noktasal durum ilişkisi olasılık dağılımı

Abstract
The main purpose of this study was to determine the recurrence intervals of Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows. For this purpose, the daily flow values measured from 1967 to 1987 in the flow station numbered 47 and controlled by General Directorate of State Water works (DSi) were used. The daily maximum flows among daily flows for every year were selected. Since reserving water by Yedikir dam built on Tersakan stream had been started after 1987, the daily flows that came after this date are not suitable for homogeneity and were not taken into account, it was determined that the Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows was homogen according to homogeneity test. In the study, plotting positions {Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey, Gringorten) and probability distributions (normal, log normal, three parameter log normal, two parameter gama, Pearson type III, log Pearson type III, extreme value type I) were used to determine the recurrence intervals of Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows. The plotting position formulas including Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey and Gringorten can be used to obtain daily maximum flows, if expected periods are smaller than observation period. In addition, one of the considered probability distribution can be used to determine the flows which have smaller return periods than 10-year. The three parameter log normal probability distribution can be suggested for the recurrence intervals of the daily maximum flows.

Keywords
Daily maximum flow plotting position probability distribution

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