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Tarımsal Ürünlerde Üretim – Fiyat İlişkisinin Koyck Yaklaşımı İle Analizi (Domates Örneği)
(The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price in Agricultural Products with Koyck Model (Tomato Case) )

Author : Gülistan ERDAL    
Type :
Printing Year : 2006
Number : 2006-2
Page : 17-24


Summary
Tarımsal Ürün talebinde ortaya çıkan değişim karşısında tarımsal ürün arzı hemen artırılamamakta, bu da tarımsal ürün piyasalarında üretimde ve fiyatlarda dalgalanmalara neden olmaktadır. Tarımsal ürünlerdeki bu yapısal özellik nedeniyle, üretim miktarı-fiyat ilişkisi Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Modeller yardımıyla incelenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de büyük ölçüde ticari amaçla üretimi gerçekleştirilen Domates üretiminde, üretim miktarı - fiyat ilişkisini gecikmesi dağıtılmış modellerden Koyck modeli ile analiz etmektir. Çalışmada 1975-2004 dönemi verileri kullanılmış, domates üretim miktarı bağımlı değişken, domates fiyatı ve fiyat serisinin gecikmeli değerlerinden oluşan seriler açıklayıcı değişken olarak dikkate alınmıştır. Koyck modeli sonuçlarına göre; domates üretimi geriye doğru en fazla üç yılın fiyatından etkilendiği, domates fiyatlarında ortaya çıkan değişimin domates üretiminde önemli ve hissedilebilir düzeyde bir etkiye neden olması için gereken zamanın 18,23 yıl olduğu belirlenmiştir. Diğer yandan incelenen dönem için, cari yılda domates fiyatlarındaki bir birimlik artış üretimi 1,149 ton artırırken, bir önceki dönemdeki fiyatlardaki bir birimlik artış domates üretimini 1,089 ton artırmaktadır. Domates fiyatlarının ikinci ve üçüncü dönem gecikmeli değerlerindeki değişmeler üretim üzerinde pozitif etki yaptığı ancak bu etki giderek azalan bir seyir ortaya koyduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuçta, üreticilerin domates yetiştiriciliğini kazançlı hale dönüştürebilmeleri açısından, etkin pazarlama organizasyonlarına kavuşturulabilmeleri, sözleşmeli yetiştiricilik sisteminin yasal anlamda daha aktif hale gelmesi, üretim planlaması kavramının hayata geçirilebilmesi yönünde alt yapı çalışmalarına ağırlık verilmesi gerektiği ifade edilmiştir.

Turkish Keywords
Domates Üretim ve Fiyat, Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Model, Koyck Modeli.

Abstract
Against the alternation appearing in product demands, agricultural product supplies can not be raised rapidly, and this situation causes fluctuations in production and prices in agricultural product market. By reason of these structional specifications, the relation between production level and prices is examined with the help of Distributed Lag Models. The aims of this study are to analyze the relation between the production level and prices of tomatoes – which is a widely produced agricultural product for commercial affairs in Turkey – with the aid of Koyck model, one of the Distributed Lag Models. In the work, the data of the period 1975 – 2004 is used and tomatoes production level is considered as dependent variable and the series consisting of tomatoes prices and delayed values of price series are considered as exogenous variables. According to Koyck model results, it is determined that production is affected by maximum three years’ prices backwards, and for an effective impact of the change in tomatoes prices on tomatoes production, an interval of 18,23 years is needed. On the other hand, for the examined period, while one point of rise in tomatoes prices raises the production 1.149 tons more in current year, in the previous period, one point of rise in the prices raises the production 1.089 tons more. It is determined that the change in delayed values of tomatoes prices in second and third period has a positive effect on production but this effect reduces gradually. Double or quits, it is meant that for a more profitable process of tomatoes production for producers, they are needed to be joined in effective marketing organizations, the contract producing system is needed to be made more active in legal process and it is needed to be focused on infrastructure developments for implementing production-planning concept.

Keywords
Tomatoes production and price, Distributed Lag Model, Koyck Model.

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