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Tokat Kazova’daki Uzun Yıllık Yağış ve Sıcaklık Gidişlerinin Kuraklık Açısından İrdelenmesi
(Examination of Long Period Precipitation and Temperature Trendlines at Tokat Kazova from Drought Point of View )

Author : İrfan OĞUZ  Tekin ÖZTEKİN Özlem AKAR  
Type :
Printing Year : 2008
Number : 2008-1
Page : 71-79


Summary
Bu çalışmada, Tokat Kazova’da uzun yıllar iklim verilerinden yararlanılarak, ovanın iklim değişikliği eğiliminin kuraklık açısından belirlenmesi amaç edinilmiş, bu eğilimlerin tarımsal üretime olası etkilerinin neler olabileceği tartışılmıştır. Araştırmada, Tokat Toprak ve Su Kaynakları Araştırma Enstitüsü meteoroloji istasyonunun 1966-2006 yılları arası rasat verilerinden aylık, mevsimlik ve yıllık yağışlar ve sıcaklıklar materyal olarak kullanılmıştır. Bu verilere ait serilerin zamana göre değişimleri öncelikle görsel olarak incelenmiş, seyirlerinde belirlenen artış veya azalışın önemli olup olmadığı, ? = 0.05 önem seviyesinde Mann-Kendall sıra korelasyon eğilim testi uygulanarak belirlenmiştir. Ovada, yıllık yağış ortalamasına ait yağış gidişlerinin değişmediği, ancak kış yağışlarındaki azalma eğiliminin önemli olduğu bulunmuştur. Ayrıca, uzun yıllık sıcaklık ortalama değerlerinde az da olsa gittikçe bir azalma olurken, yıllık minimum sıcaklıklardaki azalış ve maksimum sıcaklıklardaki artış eğilimleri önemli bulunmuştur.

Turkish Keywords
İklim değişikliği, yağış gidişi, sıcaklık gidişi, eğilim doğrusu

Abstract
In this study, examination the tendency of climate variability at Tokat Kazova with drought point of view was aimed. The possible effects of this tendency on agricultural production were discussed. The monthly, seasonal and yearly precipitations and temperatures measured at the weather station of Tokat Soil and Water Resources Research Institute during 1966 through 2006 were used. For these series, first visual trends were examined, then the Mann-Kendall test at ? = 0.05 significance level was performed to determine whether the determined increases or decreases in the series are important or not. At the plain, it was determined that the trend line for the annual average precipitation data with respect to the years have not changed. However, the decreasing trend in the precipitations during winter was found important. In addition, while it is small, the overall average temperature for the years is being decreasing, the increasing and decreasing trends in maximum and minimum annual temperatures, respectively, were found important.

Keywords
Climate variability, precipitation trend line, temperature trend line, tendency line

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