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Ankara’da Ölçülen Yıllık Maksimum Yağışların Bölgesel Frekans Analizi
(Regional Frequency Analysis for Annual Maxima Precipitation Data Measured in Ankara Province )

Author : Alper Serdar ANLI  Fazlı ÖZTÜRK  
Type :
Printing Year : 2011
Number : 2011-1
Page : 61-71


Summary
Bu araştırmada Ankara ilinde meydana gelen yağışların L moment yöntemleri ile bölgesel frekans analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla 32 yağış gözlem istasyonundan elde edilen günlük yağış miktarlarından yararlanarak yıllık maksimum yağış dizileri oluşturulmuştur. Bölgesel analizlere istasyonların tümü bir bölge kabul edilerek başlanmış, ancak istasyonlardaki düzensizlikten dolayı Ankara ili kümeleme analizi yardımıyla üç bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Gösterge taşkın yöntemi yoluyla gerçekleştirilen bir dizi analizler sonucunda bölgelere göre homojenlik sağlanmış, her bölge için uygun bir olasılık dağılımı saptanmış ve bölgesel L moment algoritması ile çeşitli tekrarlanma sürelerinde (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 ve 100 yıl) muhtemel tasarım yağışları tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin edilen yağış miktarlarının doğruluğunun değerlendirilmesi amacıyla Monte Carlo simülasyon tekniği uygulanmış ve her bölge için büyüme eğri bileşenleri elde edilerek, tekrarlanma tahminlerinin mutlak taraflılık, taraflılık ve ortalama karekök hataları (RMSE) hesaplanmıştır.

Turkish Keywords
Ankara, bölgesel frekans, yıllık maksimum yağış, L moment, gösterge taşkın, Monte Carlo simülasyonu.

Abstract
In this study, regional frequency analysis of precipitation data is carried out through methods of L-moments in Ankara province. Annual maxima precipitation series are formed using daily precipitation records obtained from 32 rainfall gauging station. Firstly, whole stations are assumed one region and then stations are split up three region using cluster analysis due to discordant stations. A set of analysis is carried out through index-flood procedure and regional homogeneity is obtained and suitable probability distribution is selected for each region and probable design precipitation values are estimated for various return periods (T year= 2, 5, 10, 25 and 100) via regional L-moment algorithm. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are applied and regional growth curve components are obtained and absolute bias, bias and root mean square errors (RMSE) of estimated quantiles are computed for assessment of the accuracy of estimated precipitation quantiles.

Keywords
Ankara, regional frequency, annual maxima precipitation, L-moment, index-flood, Monte Carlo simulati

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