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Abstract


Forecating Harvest Area and Production of Strawberry Using Time Series Analyses
This study was conducted to model the harvest area and production of strawberry in Turkey using FAOSTAT data from period of 1965 - 2015 to forecast strawberry harvest area and production for 2016-2025 period. Non-stationary time series of strawberry harvest area and production for 1965-2015 period were transformed into stationary time series after taking the first difference of the time series. Three Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA (1,1,0), ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1)) and three Exponential Smoothing (Holt, Brown and Damped) models were used comparatively for time series data sets on strawberry harvest area and production. Holt exponential smoothing model showed the best forecasting and Brown exponential smoothing model was the most appropriate forecasting model for strawberry harvest area and production from the tested six models. We forecasted that the strawberry harvest area is going to be 14 385 ha in 2016 and will increase to 16 591 ha in 2025. The strawberry production forecasted significant increase for the 2016-2025 period, from 396 341 tons to 519 816 tons. Briefly, the present forecasting results might help policy makers to develop macro-level policies for food security and more effective strategies for better planning strawberry production in Turkey.

Keywords
strawberry, production, harvested area, exponential smoothing, time series


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