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Abstract


Determination of The Recurrence intervals of The Daily Maximum Flows Caused Flood on The Tersakan Stream Watershed
The main purpose of this study was to determine the recurrence intervals of Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows. For this purpose, the daily flow values measured from 1967 to 1987 in the flow station numbered 47 and controlled by General Directorate of State Water works (DSi) were used. The daily maximum flows among daily flows for every year were selected. Since reserving water by Yedikir dam built on Tersakan stream had been started after 1987, the daily flows that came after this date are not suitable for homogeneity and were not taken into account, it was determined that the Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows was homogen according to homogeneity test. In the study, plotting positions {Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey, Gringorten) and probability distributions (normal, log normal, three parameter log normal, two parameter gama, Pearson type III, log Pearson type III, extreme value type I) were used to determine the recurrence intervals of Tersakan stream’s daily maximum flows. The plotting position formulas including Hazen, Weibull, Chegodayev, Tukey and Gringorten can be used to obtain daily maximum flows, if expected periods are smaller than observation period. In addition, one of the considered probability distribution can be used to determine the flows which have smaller return periods than 10-year. The three parameter log normal probability distribution can be suggested for the recurrence intervals of the daily maximum flows.

Keywords
Daily maximum flow plotting position probability distribution


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