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Abstract


Internal Terms of Trade for Milk Production in Turkey and Risk Analyses
This study aimed to determine which of the two sectors, agriculture (especially animal products and milk) or industry improved internal terms os trade during the period of 1984-2001 and at what levels the milk productivity which has an important role in the stockbreeding sector which was studied, the course of price and gross incomes, fluctuating degrees, and inconsistency experienced in gross incomes year by year are affected by the fluctuations in the productivity and price components . Internal terms of trade were computed using two ways: net barter and income terms of trade. The levels of fluctuations in productivity and gross incomes were determined by computing the coefficients of variation and random variation. Exponential model was used as an appropriate trend model for the series. Taking 1987 into consideration as the base year, the net barter and income terms of trade were not favourable for milk producers during the 1985-1990 period but favourable during the 1990-1993 period. Internal terms of trade which decreased due to the 1994 crisis reached a very high point again in 1998. However, it declined again in 1999 and in 2001 it receded to 95.28 % under the influence of the February crisis. In addition, the annual average increase rate was positive in income terms of trade in 1984-2001. In conclusion, it was determined that the fluctuations occuring in the income of the farmers were mainly due to the floats in prices. Milk production cost increases because of the factors such as insufficient milk production per animal, high prices of thick feed, insufficient use of pastures and coarse food. It can be said that rearranging of regulations of financial incentives for milk producers and regular milk Premium payments will increase milk production. To that end, effective implementation of policies which will maintain the balance between product prices and input prices is needed.

Keywords
Internal Terms of Trade, Milk Proıduction, Risk Analysis


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