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Abstract


The Interaction between Production and Prices for Dry Onion
In this study, the relation between production level and prices in dry onion production is examined with the help of Koyck Model, one of the Distributed Lag Models. The study covers the period 1975-2006. To develop the Koyck Model, the production level of dry onion was considered as dependent variable and the price series consisting of dry onion prices and lagged price series are considered as explanatory variables. Based on the results of Koyck Model, it was determined that production was affected by maximum five years’ prices backwards, and for an effective impact of the change in dry onion prices on dry onion production, the mean lag was 1,19 years. The other finding of the study is that, for the examined period, one YTL increase in dry onion prices led to rise the production with 1,076 tons more in current year, in the previous period, one point rise in the prices raises the production 1,040 tons more. Also, one point rise in delayed values of dry onion prices in second period raises the production 1,021 tons more. It is determined that the change in delayed values of dry onion prices has a positive effect on production but this effect reduces gradually. A planned-production process should be executed for a sustainable growth and a more profitable process of dry onion production, which is traded in the conditions of open market.

Keywords
Dry onion, Koyck model


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